Written by JOC predicts that weak off-season demand will continue until next year’s Lunar New Year and shipping disruptions such as shippers’ rollovers will increase as temporary cancellations by shipping companies expand. Accordingly, it was pointed out that shippers may focus their bookings on shipping companies that maintain punctuality and schedule.
Sea-intelligence mentioned that the temporary cancellation of flights this week, before the National Day (October 1-October 7), is already causing disruptions in shipments and operations for shippers, including the rollover of some cargo. In addition to temporary cancellations, shipping companies are also controlling supply through slowdown operations on routes with long sailing days, such as between Asia and North America.
However, according to industry officials, freight rates are expected to remain weak in the short term due to sluggish demand until the Lunar New Year. Xeneta stated that it is difficult to expect an upward trend in cargo volume in 2024, and Sea-intelligence predicted that over the next 3 to 5 years, ▲oversupply (supply +10% in 2023, +10% in 2024) ▲moderate increase in demand ▲downward pressure on freight rates. I expect this to continue
Meanwhile, based on Platts, spot freight between Asia and the West Coast of North America is $1,600/FEU, and between North America is $2,150/FEU, both down 10% from the previous week. Typically, the gap between East and West coast freight rates is about $1,000/FEU, but due to the influence of the Panama Canal draft restrictions, etc., it ranges from $550 to $800/FEU depending on the freight index (JOC 2023/9/26)
Excerpt from JOC news